Last Chance for McCain

Here's your daily polling fix: Nate Silver notes that, while there has been some tightening in a few national polls, there has been almost none in state polls, which, when grouped together, provide a much larger sample. "If the state polls aren't showing movement toward McCain," he writes, "then it is probably the case that any perceived movement in the national polls is sampling noise." Obama is also running up the score in non-battleground states, cushioning his popular vote total, and pollster consensus is arriving on battleground states: North Carolina and Missouri are true toss-ups; Florida is a toss-up that leans Obama; Ohio and Nevada tilt Obama but are not out of reach for McCain; Colorado and Virginia are strongly Obama; and Pennsylvania is probably out of reach for McCain.