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Democrat Ron Barber looks poised to take over the U.S. Senate seat formerly held by Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona—at least according to Public Policy Polling. The Democratic polling group sees Barber, an ex-Giffords aide who was injured in the line of duty when the senator was shot last year, with 53 percent against Republican opponent Jesse Kelly’s 41 percent. PPP even goes so far as to say that Barber has tomorrow’s special election “locked up,” while, Politico points out, elsewhere the race is predicted to be much closer.